| News Details |
Cold waves and the implications of climate change
2024-12-15
Assistant Instructor Bilal Muayad Abdul Rahim
Upper Euphrates Basin Developing Centre – University of Anbar
It is known that temperatures are not at the same pace, so they rise at times and fall at other times, and this is normal usually, and not every drop or rise in them is a wave of heat / cold waves, As the meteorologist was adopted in determining the waves on the basis of the minimum and maximum temperature and the amount of increase in the average, which is a period of not less than three days, in which the temperature changes from its usual rate and has been determined by some countries, for example Australia to be five days in which the minimum temperature does not exceed (5-10) °C, cold waves were identified (that period in which the minimum temperature drops five degrees from its average for three consecutive days), which is a sudden rapid and severe drop in temperatures that may last (5-10) days, but the most acceptable is issued by (World Meteorological Organization, which is a period of not less than three consecutive days in which the minimum temperature drops by five degrees from its general average), the minimum temperature should have dropped five degrees below its monthly average.
Cold waves leave a clear impact on human life and various activities, their impact in economic terms is in the high costs of heating necessary during cold waves, as they require a lot of electrical energy and fossil fuels for the purpose of making home heating means, as well as the negative effects that agricultural production is exposed to from the destruction of plants and the death of animals, so they are the cause of famine, especially in poor countries that depend on agricultural production for their livelihood, as well as their impact on human health. This is what is happening on the European continent, where it was exposed to a cold wave in 2012, which was the reason for the drop in temperature to (-35) C5, killing 100 people in Ukraine.
Through the available data for a period of time, which is from (1980-2024), and after analysing it, it was found that Iraq was exposed to (133) cold waves whose distribution differed in time and space, and these waves were classified on the basis of their duration of stay as follows:
1. Short waves do not exceed three days, and (56) waves have been recorded.
2. Medium waves (4-6) days, which reached (49) waves.
3. Long waves, which are more than six days, and their number in Iraq (28).
The most severe drop in temperatures is in the winter months, in which cold waves occur, and those months are (December, January, February), and it is clear that these waves have varied from month to month, so the month of December is the most frequent in the occurrence of cold waves, as (61) waves were recorded out of the total cold waves recorded in Iraq (1980-2024), followed by the month of January, which ranked second, as the frequency of cold waves reached (45) waves Then comes the month of February in third place, as (27) waves were recorded.
As for the temporal distribution of these waves during the mentioned period, their occurrence varied from a year free of cold waves to a year in which the frequency of these waves is frequent, and it is noted that the gradual rise in the frequency of their occurrence is noted, as Iraq witnessed the occurrence of (13) waves for the period (1980-1990), which is the lowest number that was recorded, while (40) waves were recorded for the period (1991-2000), while the third decade comes, which witnessed the highest frequency of cold waves in 2008, which amounted to (12) waves. Out of (43) waves in the period (2001-2010), while Iraq recorded (37) waves in the period (2011-2024), and the years (2014-2019-2023-2024) are the most frequent of the last decade.
This increase is also observed in heat waves, and the main reason for this is climate change, as global warming works on a significant change in atmospheric systems, which leads to the melting of ice in a certain area and a change in the establishment of atmospheric pressure, the direction of wind movement, and the consequent movement of air masses and their characteristics affecting the weather, as well as the role of the human element in that, in terms of changing land uses and removing vegetation cover, pollutants and emissions that have a major role in climate change.
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