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Iraq's Weather Forecast for the Coming Soon
2026-01-23
The Meteorology Department at the Upper Euphrates Center for Sustainable Development Research, University of Anbar, announced the latest satellite weather updates. Assistant Professor Dr. Ahmed Jassam Mukhlif, head of satellite weather analysis at the department, stated that synoptic analysis (Friday, January 23, 2026), according to pressure distribution maps, indicates the deepening of a very cold polar air mass, with its core concentrated over the northern half of the country. This has led to the formation of a complex weather system combining freezing and liquid precipitation, as follows:
- Snowfall Zone: Heavy and regular snowfall is expected, including in the mountainous regions and city centers of the Kurdistan Region (Duhok, Erbil, and Sulaymaniyah). As for temperature values: Temperatures are expected to reach freezing in city centers, while in Sulaymaniyah they will drop to -1°C, and in the mountainous border regions to very low levels ranging between -5°C and -10°C.
- Sleet/Mixed Rain Zone: Mosul Governorate was affected by a mixed precipitation front (rain mixed with snow) with a stable surface temperature of 1°C.
- Stratiform Rain Zone: The capital, Baghdad, and the central regions were affected by a cold front, resulting in moderate to heavy drizzle, with a maximum temperature not exceeding 6°C. This was accompanied by active northwesterly winds that increased the perceived chill factor.
- Western Desert: Rainfall continued in Tikrit and Al-Qaim (5°C), with a possibility of light snow showers in Al-Rutba (6°C) due to the sharp cooling in the upper atmosphere.
Weather System Shift (Saturday, January 24, 2026)
The low-pressure system will begin to gradually weaken starting Saturday night, as satellite imagery and ECMWF model forecasts show the air mass moving south and southeast.
• Weakening Activity: Rainfall will cease in the northern and central regions, with the weather system concentrating in the southwestern and southern regions.
• Active Rainfall Dynamics: Light to moderate rain will continue in the governorates of Najaf, Kufa, Nasiriyah, and Qurna.
• Convective Activity: Forecasts indicate the development of thunderstorms in the Muthanna desert and the area extending from Rafha towards Al-Qaim, with the possibility of brief periods of heavy rainfall due to temperature differences in these desert regions.
Gradual Stabilization (Sunday, January 25, 2026)
• End of the weather system: The weather activity is expected to dissipate completely by midday on Sunday, gradually becoming limited to the southernmost regions of the country (Basra and the Kuwaiti border).
Recommendations from the Climate and Meteorology Department:
• Beware of frost: Due to the lingering presence of cold air masses in the lower atmosphere after the rain has subsided.
• Snow accumulation: Be aware of the potential closure of mountain roads in the northern regions.
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