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A frontal low-pressure depression is expected to affect Iraq, bringing unstable weather conditions
2026-02-06
The Meteorology and Climate Department at the Upper Euphrates Center for Sustainable Development Research, University of Anbar, announced an updated weather forecast for the coming week. Assistant Professor Dr. Ahmed Jassam Mukhlif, Head of Satellite Meteorology, stated that based on the analysis of meteorological data, the latest updates to the European model (ECMWF), and satellite imagery, the forecast indicates that the country will be affected by a frontal low-pressure depression. This depression is resulting from the convergence of a cold air mass from the north with a tropical moisture flow from the south. This interaction will lead to a state of atmospheric instability, with its effects beginning this Friday evening.
The first signs of this instability will be felt this Friday evening. Friday evening and Saturday night, February 6/7 (First Response Phase):
- Western and southwestern regions: The weather depression begins with the formation of cumulonimbus clouds due to dynamic air lifting, which will, God willing, lead to light rain showers. The weather activity will gradually increase during the evening, with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop, affecting Baghdad, southern cities, and extending to the eastern border strip, due to the availability of moisture in the middle atmospheric layers.
Saturday, February 7 (Peak of Northern Precipitation and Expansion of the Depression):
- Northern regions: The weather activity intensifies significantly, becoming the "center of gravity" of this depression. Heavy, continuous rain is expected, accompanied by heavy snowfall over the high mountain peaks and border areas with Turkey and Iran, due to the freezing level dropping to very low levels.
- Afternoon: Precipitation tends to stabilize relatively in the central and southern regions, while remaining continuous and heavy in the northern regions.
- Saturday evening and night: The weather activity will intensify further. Rainfall is expected to cover the northern and central regions, as well as the northern and eastern parts of Anbar Governorate, extending as far south as the city of Kut, supported by effective upper-level cooling.
Long-range forecast (Sunday through the end of the week): A cold air mass will settle over the eastern Mediterranean basin, confining rainfall on Sunday to the northern and northeastern regions. Intermittent periods of atmospheric instability are expected to continue until the end of the week, Allah willing.
Recommendations and warnings:
- In the north: Be aware of the risk of snow accumulation on mountain roads and the need to exercise caution due to the potential for flash floods in valleys as a result of heavy rainfall.
- In the central and southern regions: Be aware of strong downdrafts during scattered thunderstorms.
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